As the Brexit vote nears...

As the Brexit vote nears the pollsters are split on the outcome, but a leave majority appears to be edging ever closer.

Go to the profile of Laura Suter
Jun 14, 2016

As the Brexit vote nears the pollsters are split on the outcome, but a leave majority appears to be edging ever closer. While much of the coverage so far has focused on the impact the UK leaving the EU would have on home soil, the rest of the Europe is unlikely to come out unscathed in a Brexit scenario.

We ask three investment experts what the impact will be on the rest of Europe and which areas will be affected. While they argue that the outlook is uncertain, much as it is for a Brexit scenario, such a move could spark a chain of other referendums, for Spain, the Netherlands and Sweden. One expert says it could “spell the end of the whole euro project”.

Elsewhere on the site we speak to InvesmentQuorum chief executive Lee Robertson in our new Investment Innovators series, which looks at key investment and fund selector figures in the industry. We talk to him about his best and worst investment calls of the past year, how he finds new funds and the changes he is making to clients' portfolios in the run-up to the EU referendum.

We also now have comment and Q&A functionality on the site, so feel free to ask our panel of experts any questions you have about the UK economy or equity markets. We recently asked Stephanie Flanders what her outlook for sterling is in the run-up to the Brexit vote. Do you agree with her answer or not? Join in the debate.

Go to the profile of Laura Suter

Laura Suter

Editor, Fund Strategy

Laura Suter is editor of Fund Strategy and head of investment news at Money Marketing. Laura was previously associate managing editor at FundFire, an FT publication based in New York, and launch editor of FundFire Alternatives. Before that she was supplements editor at Money Management magazine.


Go to the profile of Malcolm Coury
Malcolm Coury over 3 years ago

What everyone seems to be missing is that Britain is signed up to two important treaties with Europe. The Treaty on European Union (TEU) and the European Economic Area Treaty (EEAT). The immediate consequence of a 'Leave' vote will be no change in our relationship with the EU for up to 2 years, albeit stock markets and currency exchanges are driven by sentiment and so they may panic for a while until the reality of that sets in. This is because the Treaty allows for a period of 2 years to negotiate an orderly exit and even that can be extended so may go on far a great deal longer.

The UK would serve notice under Article 50 of that Treaty and the exit can be agreed through qualified majority voting (QMV) so it doesn't have to satisfy every member state. In the meantime Britain would remain a full member of the EU and there would be no change in trade, regulation, budget contributions or freedom of movement.

Therefore, in the event of exit negotiations not achieving much, one option is for Britain to retain our EEA membership. I'm fairly confident the EU would want that because it means we would retain access to the single market and with it the single market directives (a minority of the more expensive EU rules), some continuing contribution to the EU budget and freedom of movement of workers.

The scaremongering is mostly from the 'Stay' campaign who are making all sorts of wild claims about Brexit being the end of the world for Britain. I think most of it is complete tosh as the UK has a strong and recovering economy that can withstand any short-term sentiment driven shocks. The real motivation behind the 'Stay' campaign is the fear that Brexit will spell the beginning of the end for the EU.

Whatever the outcome of the vote on the 23rd I'm confident Britian will be be OK, in or outside of Europe. If we vote to leave it's because the 'Stay' campaign has treated the electorate as idiots and deserves to lose. If we stay, one has to respect that and with it accept creeping European federalism.

Malcolm Coury